Developing Risk Prediction to Support Preventative and Anticipatory Care in Scotland – Enhancing SPARRA (Version 3)

What was the issue you were addressing or working on?

Information Services Division (ISD) was keen to further develop the Scottish Patients at Risk of Readmission and Admission (SPARRA) tool to identify patients who may benefit from a more anticipatory approach to their care; planning for events or exacerbations to reduce the risk of emergency hospital admission.

SPARRA is a tool which predicts a patient’s risk of emergency admission; a patient with a SPARRA score of 50% has a one in two chance of being admitted to hospital in the following year.

What you did?

In addition to improving the accuracy of SPARRA, the population included in the risk prediction model was increased considerably by linking information from five national, patient-level datasets:  hospital inpatient admissions; community prescribing; emergency department attendances; outpatient attendances; psychiatric inpatient admissions.

What were the outcomes - benefits or otherwise?

The inclusion of data on community prescribing (items dispensed), emergency department and outpatient attendances allows SPARRA to help identify patients further down the Kaiser Permanente Long Term Conditions Pyramid.  The SPARRA score of these patients (below 60%) may mean that they are not well known to health and social care staff.  These patients are more likely to benefit from a more anticipatory, preventative approach to their care.

The use of a risk prediction tool like SPARRA is included in the Quality & Outcomes Framework Guidance for the GMS Contract 2013/14 (QP006 and QP007) to assist in identifying patients who would most benefit from an Anticipatory Care Plan.

Contacts - to find out more